Upsets at 2011 cricket World Cup
Thursday, July 1, 2010
When you play a World Cup in the subcontinent, conventional wisdom sinks to the bottom of the Arabian Sea. When played elsewhere, the competition has thrown up the odd surprise winner – India at Lord's in 1983 – but by and large, the form book hasn't been torn to shreds. In the heat and summer dust of India, Pakistan and Sri Lanka though, calculations go awry and only a soothsayer or maverick could have predicted Australia's triumph in 1987 or Sri Lanka's unbeaten surge to the summit nine years later.
After a month in which each of the contenders apart from New Zealand has been in 50-over action, most teams have a better idea of the weaknesses and grey areas that they need to work on before they assemble in Dhaka next February. Some, like England, will look ahead with great optimism, while others like Pakistan will hope that they can rediscover the winning habit. For teams like Zimbabwe, who twice beat an Indian second string in a tri-series recently, the World Cup will be an opportunity to enhance a remarkable catalogue of upsets [Australia (1983), England (1992) and India (1999)].
For India, redemption is the name of the game after their stay in the Caribbean for the last edition lasted little more than a fortnight. Last week, even with Sachin Tendulkar and Virender Sehwag missing, they won the Asia Cup for the first time since 1995, denying Sri Lanka a third straight continental title. But as with most Indian victories over the past few seasons, the success was set up by the batsmen. When they failed, the bowlers were found wanting.
Zaheer Khan and Harbhajan Singh, and Ashish Nehra at a stretch, are the only certain starters on the bowling side. Ravindra Jadeja, despite his World Twenty20 horrors, has clearly been identified as the slow-bowling all-rounder, while Praveen Kumar and Pragyan Ojha appear to be at the forefront of the back-up pace and spin queues. On pitches where scores in excess of 300 are the norm, India's batting strength will make them hard to beat, but in more balanced conditions, the lack of teeth in the bowling could scupper yet another World Cup dream.
On surfaces where the bowlers have enjoyed some assistance, England have looked excellent, holding their nerve to win the series against Australia. Eoin Morgan has added shot-making oomph and a superb temperament to a reliable batting line-up, while Stuart Broad has once again served notice of his game-changing credentials. But to win on the subcontinent, England – who play five of their six group games in India – will need to redress their recent appalling record.
Before the Mumbai attacks caused the one-day tour to be abandoned in November 2008, they were 5-0 down in the series, an even worse performance than the 5-1 drubbing in 2006. The tactics that worked well in English conditions were hopeless in India, especially the safety-first approach to starting an innings. Much will depend on Andrew Strauss and whether he's able to re-tool his game to match the strike-rates of Tendulkar, Chris Gayle and Graeme Smith.
Smith's South Africa will again be there or thereabouts, but after Tendulkar flayed them for one-day cricket's first 200 a few months ago, it might not be a bad idea for the pace bowlers to train with the likes of Fanie de Villiers and Craig Matthews, so exceptional at subduing batsmen on slow-and-low pitches. With Herschelle Gibbs on the wane, the batting needs AB de Villiers to regain the form of 2008.
Asia's other contenders have different issues to address. Sri Lanka's bowling line-up looks the best balanced of all, with Lasith Malinga's pace, Nuwan Kulasekara's cutters, Angelo Mathews's all-round ability and multiple spin options led by Muttiah Muralitharan. But with a fading Sanath Jayasuriya seemingly cut adrift, the batting is once again heavily reliant on Kumar Sangakkara and Mahela Jayawardene. Tillakaratne Dilshan has struggled to replicate his form of 2009, and the next few months may be a good time to invest in Dinesh Chandimal, who caught the eye in the tri-series win in Zimbabwe.
Pakistan have Mohammad Aamer's left-arm pace and Umar Akmal's thrilling strokeplay to offer in the young talent stakes, but it's hard to repose too much faith in a batting line-up where Salman Butt and Shoaib Malik, in favour today and out of it tomorrow, are the experienced campaigners. Kamran Akmal should also be around, provided he hasn't driven captain and selectors round the bend with more diabolical keeping. They may lack the batting reserves to win it, but Shahid Afridi's team will be dangerous floaters if they can rally behind the leader instead of lapsing into back-stabbing cliques.
For Bangladesh, a quarter-final place will be a considerable achievement, given that they'll have to keep out either India, England, South Africa or West Indies to get there. New Zealand will be quietly confident given their consistent overachievement at this level, and will have the advantage of playing a series in Indian conditions closer to the event. West Indies will rely on runs from Gayle, Shivnarine Chanderpaul and Ramnaresh Sarwan, and hope that Jerome Taylor bowls as well as he did during the Champions Trophy in 2006.
The associate nations – Ireland, the Netherlands, Canada and Kenya – are unlikely to provide more than nuisance value, though West Indies [losers to Kenya in 1996] and Pakistan [upset by Ireland on the eve of Bob Woolmer's untimely death] won't be taking them lightly. With far-reaching changes likely before the World Cup of 2015, it could be a last opportunity for such teams to hold on to a place at the top table.
That leaves us with the champions. Don't be fooled by Australia's current predicament in England. Gary Lineker once said of his bogeymen: "Football is a simple game; 22 men chase a ball for 90 minutes and at the end, the Germans win." Australia are cricket's perennial powerhouses, and pre-tournament form counts for nothing once they walk on to the big stage.
In 2007, England beat them in the CB Series finals and New Zealand humbled them in the Chappell-Hadlee Series. We all know what happened next. They haven't lost a World Cup match since 1999 and their last reverse at an event of this magnitude came at Edgbaston in the Champions Trophy semi-final of 2004. If they can keep Doug Bollinger, Mitchell Johnson and Shaun Tait fit, and give Steven Smith's leg-spin the experience it needs without overexposing it, they'll once again be the team to beat.
Tendulkar played one of the innings of his life in Hyderabad last November, but in the end, a makeshift side featuring the likes of Clint McKay still prevailed. Regardless of what happens in England this summer, or the result of the winter's Ashes series, Ricky Ponting's side will take some stopping.
Labels: ICC Cricket World Cup 2011, Upsets
posted @ 12:21 PM,
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